188宝金博页面版

第 29 卷第 4 期 Vol.29 No.4 工 程 力 学 2012 年 4 月 Apr. 2012 ENGINEERING MECHANICS 210 ——————————————— 收稿日期：2010-06-29；修改日期：2011-05-26 基金项目：江苏省高校自然科学基金项目(06KJBS80046)；江苏省政府留学基金项目(200845112)；住房与城乡建设部科学技术项目(2010K28) 通讯作者：王立彬(1970―)，男，河北石家庄人，副教授，博士生，硕导，从事桥梁结构理论及应用研究(E-mail: jhwlb@163.com). 作者简介：马小利(1986―)，女，山西大同人，硕士，从事工程结构理论与应用研究(E-mail: mxl_nfu@163.com)； 丁 盛(1985―)，男，江苏盐城人，硕士，从事工程结构理论与应用研究(E-mail: dingsheng_nfu@163.com). 文章编号：1000-4750(2012)04-0210-07 平行钢索的锈蚀时变失效概率分析 马小利1 ，王立彬 1,2,3 ，丁 盛 1 (1. 南京林业大学土木工程学院，南京 210037； 2. 东南大学土木工程学院混凝土及预应力混凝土结构188宝金博页面版部重点实验室，南京 210096； 3. 美国里海大学土木工程系 ATLSS 实验室，Bethlehem 18015) 摘 要：在综合锈蚀开始时间的概率模型和锈蚀面积扩展的概率模型的基础上，建立了平行拉索锈蚀时变失效概率模型。根据不同检测周期钢丝锈蚀概率树形结构的特点，提出了锈蚀概率计算的分枝约界方法，有效地解决了计算量指数级增长的问题。模型参数分析和拉索失效概率算例表明：在模型参数统计评估正确性的前提下，该模型能够预测在役拉索任何检修周期的钢丝锈蚀的数目及其概率，能够计算任意时刻钢丝锈蚀的总量，进而分析拉索的时变失效概率。该模型的提出是对拉索锈蚀失效问题的一种探索研究，对拉索检测评估研究具有一定的参考价值。 关键词：平行拉索；检测评估；时变锈蚀概率模型；失效概率；失效树；分枝约界 中图分类号：U445.7 + 3 文献标志码：A TIME-DEPENDENT FAILURE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF CORRODED PARALLEL WIRE CABLE MA Xiao-li 1 , WANG Li-bin 1,2,3 , DING Sheng 1 (1. Department of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Concrete and Prestressed Concrete Structures of Ministry of Education, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China; 3. ATLSS Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015, U.S.) Abstract: Based on the probability model of wire corrosion initiation and the probability model of corrosion expansion, the time-dependent failure probability model for a corroded parallel wire cable is established. According to characteristics of a wire-corrosion probability tree formed by probability in each consecutive inspection period, the branch and bound method was introduced to calculate the corrosion probability, solving the key problems of the exponential growth in computational amount. The model parameters and an example of cable’s failure probability were investigated. In premise of the correct statistical estimation on all model parameters, the results demonstrate that the model can predict the number of corroded wires with their probability in any detection period for a cable in service, and calculate the total amount of wire corrosion area. Moreover, the model can be used to analyze the time-dependent cable failure probability. The proposed model is an exploratory research on the cable corrosion failure problem, thus it has a certain reference value for the inspection and evaluation on stay-cables. Key words: parallel wire cable; inspection and evaluation; time-dependent corrosion probability model; failure probability; failure probability tree; branch and bound method