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PLOS Climate | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000985 August 5, 2026 1 / 20 OPEN ACCESSCitation: Gallegati M, Solomou S, Tian K (2026) The inf l ationary effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. PLOS Clim 5(8): e0000985. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000985Editor: Juan A. Añel, Universidade de Vigo, SPAINReceived: July 22, 2025Accepted: June 16, 2026Published: August 5, 2026Copyright: © 2026 Gallegati et al . This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Data availability statement: Data available at https://zenodo.org/records/20344538.Funding: This work was supported by the University of Cambridge Keynes Fund (grant number JHWZ to SS) and the Cambridge Humanities Research Grants Scheme (no grant number; to SS). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, RESEARCH ARTICLEThe inflationary effects of the El Niño-Southern OscillationMarco Gallegati1 , Solomos Solomou 2 *, Kun Tian 31 DISES, Polytechnic University of Marche, Ancona, Italy, 2 Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 3 Kent Business School, University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom * ss19@cam.ac.ukAbstract In this paper we apply the wavelet approach and the GVAR methodology to investi-gate the effects of El Niño fluctuations on national inflation rates, global commodity prices and world oil prices. The focus of our analysis is on the inflation effects of “ENSO diversity”, measured as the central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño. Using quarterly data from c.1950 onward, we substantially extend the time span of existing studies. This allows us to observe a much larger number of ENSO cycles. The set of countries included in our study comprises countries directly affected by the El Niño, countries that are teleconnected with the El Niño variations and countries that are only indirectly affected by these processes via global economic linkages. The results from wavelet analysis display several key features. First, we observe an episodic relationship between ENSO variations and inflation for most countries, irrespective of whether they are directly impacted by ENSO or impacted via teleconnections. Second, the identification of CP and EP ENSO effects highlights the importance of ENSO diversity when analysing the inflationary effects of ENSO. Third, the periods of statistical significance encompass both El Niño and La Niña phases of the ENSO cycle. The GVAR framework used to estimate the magnitude of the effects of the ENSO cycle on national CPI inflation confirms that modelling the effects of ENSO diversity as captured by CP and EP ENSO measures matters for the identification of their complex nonlinear effects on national inflation rates.1. IntroductionThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent fluctuations in the global climate system, with far-reaching economic impacts. A key question in climate economics and in Central Bank policy analysis is whether ENSO affects national inflation rates. The existing literature offers mixed evidence. For instance, [1] finds that El Niño variations account for 10–20% of inflation movements in G7 countries between 1963 and 1998. In contrast, [2], examining CPI inflation across