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188宝金博页面版: 【精品】Converting a rule-based expert system into a belief network

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内容提示: Converting a Rule-based Expert System into aBelief Network?M. Korver & P.J.F. LucasDepartment of Computer Science, Utrecht UniversityP.O. Box 80.0893508 TB Utrecht, The Netherlandse-mail: lucas@cs.uu.nlAbstractThe theory of belief networks offers a relatively new approach for dealing with uncertaininformation in knowledge-based (expert) systems. In contrast with the heuristic tech-niques for reasoning with uncertainty employed in many rule-based expert systems, thetheory of belief networks is mathematical...

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Converting a Rule-based Expert System into aBelief Network∗M. Korver & P.J.F. LucasDepartment of Computer Science, Utrecht UniversityP.O. Box 80.0893508 TB Utrecht, The Netherlandse-mail: lucas@cs.uu.nlAbstractThe theory of belief networks offers a relatively new approach for dealing with uncertaininformation in knowledge-based (expert) systems. In contrast with the heuristic tech-niques for reasoning with uncertainty employed in many rule-based expert systems, thetheory of belief networks is mathematically sound, based on techniques from probabilitytheory. It therefore seems attractive to convert existing rule-based expert systems intobelief networks. In this article, we discuss the design of a belief network reformulationof the diagnostic rule-based expert system HEPAR. For the purpose of this experiment,we have studied several typical pieces of medical knowledge represented in the HEPARsystem. It turned out that, due to the differences in the type of knowledge representedand in the formalism used to represent uncertainty, much of the medical knowledge re-quired for building the belief network concerned could not be extracted from HEPAR. Asa consequence, significant additional knowledge acquisition was required. However, theobjects and attributes defined in the HEPAR system, as well as the conditions in produc-tion rules mentioning these objects and attributes were useful for guiding the selectionof the statistical variables for building the belief network. The mapping of objects andattributes in HEPAR to statistical variables is discussed in detail.Keywords & Phrases: medical expert systems, belief networks, causal graphs, decisionsupport systems.1IntroductionIn heuristic, diagnostic expert systems, knowledge from a given domain is typically representedin the form of production rules, or rules for short. To express uncertainty in the domain, eachconclusion of a rule is associated with a measure of confidence in its correctness. The exactmeaning of such non-probabilistic measures of uncertainty usually is not clearly defined.An example of a method for handling uncertainty frequently applied in rule-based expertsystems is the certainty-factor model developed by E.H. Shortliffe and B.G. Buchanan for the(E)MYCIN system [24, 1]. Certainty factors can be given a probabilistic interpretation, but∗Published in: Medical Informatics, 18(3): 219–241, 1993 (also: 1994 Yearbook of Medical Informatics).1

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