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Review of recent carrying capacity models for bivalve culture andrecommendations for research and managementChristopher W. McKindseya,?, Helmut Thetmeyerb, Thomas Landryc, William SilvertdaFisheries and Oceans Canada, Institut Maurice-Lamontagne, 850 Route de la Mer, Mont-Joli, QC, Canada G5H 3Z4bLeibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, GermanycFisheries and Oceans Canada, Gulf Fisheries Centre, P.O. Box 5030, Moncton, NB, Canada E1C 9B6dCentro de Ciências do Mar, Faculdade de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente, Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas,8000-117 Faro, PortugalReceived 11 April 2006; received in revised form 29 June 2006; accepted 29 June 2006AbstractModels and tools for assessing the carrying capacity of an area of interest for bivalve culture can be classified according to theirlevel of complexity and scope. In this report, we discuss and outline four hierarchical categories of carrying capacity studies:physical, production, ecological, and social carrying capacity. The assessment of carrying capacity for progressively highercategories of models is based on a sound understanding of preceding categories. We discuss each in brief and the third in moredetail as this is the level at which knowledge is the most lacking and for which science may make the most advances.(1) Physical carrying capacity may be assessed by a combination of hydrodynamic models and physical information, ideallypresented and analysed within a Geographic Information System (GIS). (2) Most scientific effort to date has been directed towardsmodelling production carrying capacity and some of the resulting models have been used successfully to this end. Furtherdevelopment of these models should pay attention to (i) better modelling of feedback mechanisms between bivalve culture and theenvironment, (ii) a consideration of all steps in the culture process (seed collection, ongrowing, harvesting, and processing), and(iii) culture technique. (3) The modelling of ecological carrying capacity is still in its infancy. The shortcomings mentioned formodels for production carrying capacity estimates are even greater for ecological carrying capacity models. GIS may beemployed to consider interactions between culture activities and sensitive habitats. (4) It is recommended that social carryingcapacity be evaluated only after the preceding levels have been completed so that an unbiased assessment is obtained. Thishowever does not exclude direction from managers for scientists as to which factors (such as water clarity, specific habitats, etc.)should be evaluated. The use of expert systems to aid in management decisions is briefly discussed with a suggested application ofa fuzzy expert system to this end.© 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Keywords: Bivalve aquaculture; Carrying capacity; Expert systems; ShellfishAquaculture 261 (2006) 451–462www.elsevier.com/locate/aqua-online?Corresponding author.E-mail addresses: mckindseyc@dfo-mpo.gc.ca (C.W. McKindsey), hthetmeyer@ifm-geomar.de (H. Thetmeyer), landryt@dfo-mpo.gc.ca(T. Landry), bill@silvert.org (W. Silvert).0044-8486/$ - see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.aquaculture.2006.06.044