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    188宝金博页面版: Demystifying the collapse in trade

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    内容提示： Dem yst ifyin g th e collapse in t rad e Caroline Freund 3 July 2009, VOX The collapse in trade has been unprecedentedly severe. This column examines potential explanations. While the global fragmentation of production has increased the responsiveness of trade flows to drops in demand, trade also responds more sharply to GDP during global slowdowns than during tranquil times. The financial crisis is wreaking havoc on the global economy. In the first quarter of 2009, nominal trade fell by 30% on aver...

    文档格式：DOC | 页数：3 | 浏览次数：10 | 上传日期：2015-12-31 23:43:53 | 文档星级：
    Dem yst ifyin g th e collapse in t rad e Caroline Freund 3 July 2009, VOX The collapse in trade has been unprecedentedly severe. This column examines potential explanations. While the global fragmentation of production has increased the responsiveness of trade flows to drops in demand, trade also responds more sharply to GDP during global slowdowns than during tranquil times. The financial crisis is wreaking havoc on the global economy. In the first quarter of 2009, nominal trade fell by 30% on average relative to the same period last year. The world trade volume is estimated to have fallen by over 1 5% during this period. The declines have been widespread across countries and products, largely reflecting the sharp drop in global demand. Why has the collapse in trade been so severe? Research on the relationship between trade and income offers some insights. Irwin (2002) estimates that that the elasticity of real world trade to real world income increased from around 2 in the 1960s and 1970s to 3.4 in the 1 990s. This would imply that trade growth should decline more than three times as much as GDP growth, assuming crises are not special. In an upcoming paper, I reexamine this relationship and find (like Irwin) that it has increased over time, from under 2 to over 3.5 in recent years (see Table 1 ). The increase in the elasticity helps explain why trade has fallen so hard in the current global slump. Table 1. Elasticity of world trade to world income The significant increase in the elasticity of trade to income may be attributed to the fragmentation of production (Yi 2008; Tanaka 2009). Because many new goods use small inputs that are nearly costless to trade (e.g. mobile phones and digital cameras), the production process of these goods has become fragmented across countries. Many more traditional goods, such as shoes and cars, are also increasingly incorporating imported inputs. The elasticity of trade to GDP will rise if there is more incentive to outsource part of the production chain when demand is high. This is because GDP is a value-added measure while trade is a gross measure. So an increase in GDP may lead to more outsourcing and much more measured trade, as an increasing number of parts travel around the globe to be assembled and delivered to their final consumer. I find the greatest responsiveness of regional exports to global income in East Asia – where a 1 % increase in real world income leads to 4.5% increase in real exports since 1 995.

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