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188宝金博页面版: Speculative Attacks and the Dynamics of Exchange Rates

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内容提示: ANNALS OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 3, 219–248 (2002)Speculative Attacks and the Dynamics of Exchange RatesStephen J. TurnovskyUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195andJian Xu *Kenyon College, Gambier, OH, 43022This paper examines the issue of speculative attacks on the exchange rate inan economy in which. following the attack the government allows the exchangerate to float for a limited period, before repegging it at a higher, sustainable,level. We highlight the tradeoffs between the length of the floa...

文档格式:PDF | 页数:30 | 浏览次数:45 | 上传日期:2016-03-24 11:29:02 | 文档星级:
ANNALS OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 3, 219–248 (2002)Speculative Attacks and the Dynamics of Exchange RatesStephen J. TurnovskyUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195andJian Xu *Kenyon College, Gambier, OH, 43022This paper examines the issue of speculative attacks on the exchange rate inan economy in which. following the attack the government allows the exchangerate to float for a limited period, before repegging it at a higher, sustainable,level. We highlight the tradeoffs between the length of the floating rate periodand the timing of the speculative attack, and the implied consequences for thetime paths of the exchange rate and consumption. By letting the exchangerate float for an appropriate period, the exchange rate crisis can be delayedfor a maximum period of time, although delaying the crisis as long as possi-ble is non-optimal. In some respects our results are qualitatively similar toearlier results based on non-optimizing models, although employing a rationalintertemporal optimizing framework substantially enhances our understandingof the determinants of the crises. c ? 2002 Peking University PressKey Words : Speculative attacks; Exchange rates; Dynamcics.JEL Classification Numbers : F31, F32.1. INTRODUCTIONThe regular recurrence of financial crises throughout the world during thelast three decades has ensured that this continues to remain a vibrant topicof research. Formal analysis of a balance of payments crisis was initiatedby Krugman (1979). 1 He showed that under a fixed exchange rate regime,domestic credit creation in excess of the growth of money demand leads to a* This paper is a revised version of Chapter 1 of the Ph.D. thesis by Jian Xu, submittedto the University of Washington.1 Krugman’s model was motivated by Salant and Henderson’s (1978) analysis of spec-ulative attacks on the government-controlled price of gold.2191529-7373/2002Copyright c ? 2002 by Peking University PressAll rights of reproduction in any form reserved.

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